The study, , also projects the city may be able to gradually reopen by early June if even stronger containment measures – especially more extensive testing and consistent contact tracing and quarantine of all newly infected individuals – are implemented.

But the study also warns that if strong and effective social distancing measures are pulled back too quickly, as many as 900 more people in Louisville would die and about 2,000 more would be hospitalized by August.

Seyed Karimi, PhD, an assistant professor in the Department of Health Management and System Sciences at the UofL School of Public Health and Information Sciences, co-authored the report.

“We know from our modeling that decreasing the current social distancing measures without increased efforts to test, isolate, and do contact tracing can move us to an unstable path with increased hospitalization and infection trends that could be catastrophic,” said Karimi, who also is a health economist with LMPHW.

Study co-author Sarah Moyer, MD, director of LMPHW and the city’s chief health strategist, said the study projects that measures the city put in place in March averted a surge of COVID-19 patients that otherwise would have overwhelmed Louisville’s health care system. Going forward, only about 400 of Louisville’s 3,600 hospital beds will be needed for COVID-19 patients if current social distancing measures remain in place.

“This model validates the measures we have put in place to control the spread of COVID-19 in Louisville thus far,” Moyer said. “The study also serves as affirmation of our state and local efforts to slowly release restrictions.”

“The study is a good example of how academic research can inform real-life public health policy decisions to protect community health,” said Craig Blakely, PhD, MPH, dean of the University of Louisville School of Public Health and Information Sciences.

Mayor Greg Fischer expressed his appreciation for the collaborative effort between UofL and the local health department, adding that the data underscores what city and health officials have been saying: “While we’re making progress in the fight against COVID-19, we still have a long way to go.

“Even as some restrictions are eased, we must stay focused and vigilant,” he said. “That’s why I have extended the executive order continuing the state of emergency here until June 1. It’s important that we not get our guard down against this dastardly disease.”

Researchers used the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, which measures the effect of public health policy interventions to contain an infection. They projected trends in the numbers of actively circulating COVID-19 infections, active hospitalizations, and deaths in the city from April 20 to August 20.

The authors considered two potential scenarios that estimated the current number of COVID-19 deaths in Louisville. The scenarios consider two different dates for the effectiveness of public and private social distancing policies in Jefferson County – March 31 and April 7, which they labeled as status quo scenarios.

Under each of the two scenarios, researchers considered four potential alternatives reflecting outcomes if social distancing and other containment strategies had been either weaker or stronger by 10% increments. They projected number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths that Louisville would see under each of those social distancing scenarios.

Their projections show that if stronger containment methods had been used from the presumed intervention days of March 31 and April 7, transmission of the virus would have decreased significantly, such that the number of infections in June would have been in two digits. On the other hand, if weaker containment methods were used from the presumed intervention days, virus transmission would have increased remarkably, such that the number of infections and hospitalization would not soon have stabilized.

Other report authors include Natalie DuPre, ScD, MS, Bert Little, PhD, MA, W. Paul McKinney, MD, all of the SPHIS.

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That has changed with COVID-19 requiring social distancing. However, the SRC is finding creative ways to keep students active. From online gaming to virtual workouts, the SRC wants to ensure that students stay connected.

“That’s a big part of what we do at the SRC,” said David Rice, coordinator of Sports Clubs and Facilities. “We are there to engage students and to get them to engage with each other. Part of the university is not just in the classroom, so typically when you go over to the gym and play basketball with someone you’ve never met before, you might just come away with a new friend. This partnership is really just an extension of that, exercising proper social distancing.”

The SRC partnered with the Cardinal Gaming Club to provide online gaming options. Students will need to join in order to connect with the Cardinal Gaming Club channels. Games available include Fortnite, Call of Duty or social role-playing games like Dungeons and Dragons. Through this partnership, more students can connect without stepping foot on campus.

For those looking to be more active, employees of the SRC have set up , where students can follow along with an instructor from their own homes. In addition, students are able to meet one-on-one with SRC Fitness Staff via . These sessions are available by reservation and will last roughly 15 minutes, giving students an opportunity to ask questions or get tips on how to train during isolation.

The SRC has also provided several social distancing , where students can run on or near campus, including HSC, with routes beginning at one mile up to four. There is also a link to create individual routes based on students’ location.

“One of the big challenges I see in my clients is the inability to deal with uncertainty. The lack of control over this disease has confronted so many with what little power we have over our lives,” said University of Louisville Trager Institute and Republic Bank Foundation Optimal Aging Clinic Director of Wellness Joseph G. D’Ambrosio, PhD, JD, LMFT, CSW.

D’Ambrosio, who also is an assistant professor in the UofL School of Medicine, says having an understanding of the disease is needed in order to protect ourselves and others, but it also is important to remember “this, too, shall pass, and we will be stronger because of it. Past generations have risen up and used crisis situations to improve the world, and we can do the same.”

He points out that a crisis can present an opportunity to stop and re-evaluate life.

“I find that in times like this, it is important to look introspectively at who we are and how we want to truly live. So many of us live a life that was prescribed by either family, society or our own beliefs about what we should do to be successful – but it may not be allowing us to be as happy or as prosperous as we could, if we were doing what we really wanted,” he said.

He gives advice on jump-starting mental strength that can lead individuals to the future life they truly want:

• Start a mindfulness practice. Begin by committing to 5 minutes in the morning and 5 minutes at night to silence and contemplation. Increase the time commitment daily so that you are doing at least 20 minutes twice a day. It will help situate you in the world where you can be your best self. There are many free apps such as Insight Timer or Calm that can help.
• Now is a good time to begin to live a healthy lifestyle. For many that means changing diet to include more fruits and vegetables, and eating less meat and dairy. Work hard to make your body as immune proof as it can be, D’Ambrosio said.

• Most importantly, have compassion for yourself and those around you. “We forget what a little bit of shared love can do to change ourselves and the world,” D’Ambrosio said.

Parents: Routines give children a sense of safety and security

Children are among those most affected by the new normal, D’Ambrosio said, and when a child experiences uncertainty it increases stress and feeling of helplessness.

“A young child’s brain undergoes constant development as they grow. Routines help the part of a young child’s brain that is able to plan ahead and make predictions about the future. Having routines in place give children the space to feel good about themselves as they know what is coming, and understand that they can accomplish the tasks presented,” he said.

D’Ambrosio encourages parents not to be too rigid if they go off schedule, just confirm that tomorrow you are back on schedule.

“Be kind to yourself and your children. These are stressful times and flexibility may be your biggest ally,” he said.

He offers some important tips for making day-to-day life at home more enjoyable and manageable for both children and parents:

• Plan a specific time to awake and go to bed, do schoolwork, perform house chores, play, eat, exercise and have family time.
• Develop a specific time for children to spend by themselves either drawing or reading.
• Create a bedtime ritual, if you don’t already have one.
• Work with your children to make pictures or signs for each activity that they can see and count on happening.
• Be sure to let children know when the next routine is going to happen so that they can be prepared. For example, “we have 15 minutes left of study time so that we can take an exercise break.”
• Use a dry-erase board or poster to post a daily agenda that includes reading time, playtime, naps, etc.
• Assign chores to your children. Even children as young as 3 years old enjoy sharing adult responsibilities.
• When preparing meals, include children in the preparation even if it is something small.
• Encourage video-chatting with family and friends. Two children drawing together while on a video-chat can be fun and give the children a chance to connect.
• Help your children to become artists by using old magazines, wrapping paper and mail advertisements to make collages.
• Encourage independent childhood play time. Parents don’t have to be with kids 24/7, and the separation is a great way to help children differentiate from their parents. That is a skill they will need to get through the rest of their lives, D’Ambrosio said.

Read a Q&A with D’Ambrosio on mental health insights during the COVID-19 pandemic on the .